October 13 Playbook: Remember, Polls Are a Snapshot

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And other helpful things to remember. This is the PoliticsPA Playbook. 

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1.  Polls Are A Snapshot, and Other Helpful Things to Remember During the Midterm Elections

Polling Top

“This is about the time of year when the country engages in the Great American Biennial Polling Freakout. 

A few weeks before an election, lots of people start to really engage. They read headlines showing this candidate or that candidate leading a race. People wonder who’s going to win and whether the polls are right or wrong. And it all often leads to a blend of anticipation mixed with confusion and anxiety.” | NPR

Elsewhere

Internal PA-01 Poll: Fitzpatrick, Harvie Tied at 46%. “If you believe in internal polls, the closest race in Pennsylvania on Election Night could be in Bucks and part of Montgomery County.” | PoliticsPA

Swing-District Democrats Keep Focus On High Prices. “New controversies concerning the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement and foreign lobbying aren’t steering Democrats away from their focus on affordability in the final three weeks before the midterms.” | Semafor

Josh Shapiro Is Hoping His Pennsylvania Gubernatorial Re-Election Campaign Has House Coattails. “Pennsylvania could be the whole ballgame for House Democrats on election night. The results could also offer a big test for the political clout of the state’s Democratic governor, Josh Shapiro, who is running for re-election but possibly has his eyes on a different race in 2028.” | MS Now


2.   These State House and Senate Races Could Change the Balance of Power in Harrisburg

PA Capitol Sunny Day

“In addition to the governor, Pennsylvania voters will elect all 203 members of the state House and half of the 50-member state Senate on Nov. 3.

As voters prepare to cast ballots in crucial races across the state, Republicans and Democrats are battling for control of the state legislature. The results will determine whether Pennsylvania continues operating under divided government or gives one party control of the legislature after the 2026 midterm elections.” | WHYY

Elsewhere

Last Call For Skill Games in PA Leaves Players and Owners in Limbo. “Pennsylvania’s “Skill Games era” will finally deplete all remaining game credits Tuesday, per mandate of the Pennsylvania Supreme Court.” | PennLive

Lawmaker Says Many to Blame For Skill Games Failure ‘Work in the Capitol.’ “Lawmaker says many to blame for skill games failure ‘work in the Capitol’” | The Center Square

Report: Pennsylvania Gas Power to Grow 15% By 2030. “Pennsylvania’s natural gas power capacity is projected to grow at least 15% by 2030, driven largely by rising electricity demand from data centers, per a new PennEnvironment Research & Policy Center analysis of federal data.” | Axios Pittsburgh


3.  Where Garrity, Shapiro Stand on ICE Detention and Other Immigration Issues

Josh Shapiro, Stacy Garrity 2026 debate
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“Pennsylvania’s next governor will shape the commonwealth’s ongoing response to the Trump administration’s campaign of mass deportation, as well as a slew of other immigration issues. 

The two major party candidates for the office have starkly different approaches.” | Spotlight PA

Elsewhere 

A Pennsylvania County Scaled Back Cooperation With ICE. Some Say It Made Things Worse For Detainees. “After local officials told the agency it could not longer use the county prison for many detainees, ICE began shipping them across the country.” | Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Where Candidates Stand on ICE, War and Data Centers. “There are 17 contested legislative races in Allegheny County this year. Here’s what the candidates said on the issues you flagged.” | Public Source

2026 Election Preview: 137th Legislative District. “Voters in Northampton County will have to decide if Joe Emrick should return to Harrisburg or Jeff Warren should replace him.” | PoliticsPA

2026 Election Preview: 121th Legislative District. “It is an open seat in Luzerne County and Jessica McClay and Mike Harostock compete to fill it.” | PoliticsPA

In 187th, Longtime Incumbent Faces Challenger Calling For New Voice in Harrisburg. “Republican Gary Day has notched 16 years as state representative in the 187th House District. Now he is in a Nov. 3 contest for another two years with Democrat Rachel Cuevas, a working mother who wants to bring a new voice to Harrisburg.” | Armchair Lehigh Valley


4.  What Do You Think?

  • What Girls Hear When a Pennsylvania Lawmaker Calls Women ‘More Costly to Hire’ | Andrea Hagan 
  • Pennsylvania’s Single-Payer Plan Has a Democracy Problem | Seth Higgins
  • Should We Still Be Electing Coroners? | Kyle Sammin
  • I Left the Republican Party. This Is Why I Haven’t Looked Back | Jean Nycz


5.  Dunkin’ Just Launched 12 New Halloween Drinks — and Not One Is Pumpkin Spice

Dunkin%27%209.30%20Launch%20 %20Dunkin%27%20Zero%20Lineup

“Pumpkin spice dominates menus at this time of year — but if its market saturation has dulled your appetite for the autumnal flavor, Dunkin’ is offering a few alternatives.

Green Apple Dunkin’ Zero is adding a “crisp” and “tart” apple flavor to the chain’s energy drink lineup beginning today, according to a company press release shared with Food & Wine. Based on that description, we imagine it as a liquefied version of a sour green Jolly Rancher candy. It won’t be the last of the chain’s fall menu. Dunkin’ describes the 12 new drinks arriving today as the “first chapter” in its Halloween rollout.” | Food & Wine


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